The first quarter decrease follows the U.S. economy growing by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, after increasing 3.1% in the third quarter, according to the BEA. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow, a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data, projected a -2.7% GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025.

The US famously bounced back from a pandemic recession that struck like a hammer blow in 2020. Fueled by a massive government rescue effort that pumped tremendous amounts of money into the economy, the nation was soon outpacing rivals in a return to growth.